Markets Respond To The 2016 Election, Look To The Future

The U.S. markets have had a rough ride following Tuesday’s election, turning in steep drops and recoveries over the past few days, although they ultimately endured well.

On Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average dropped by as much as 800 points before ending at 257. It showed a strong recovery on Thursday, hitting an intraday high, trading roughly 130 points higher before retreating. The S&P 500 dipped 5 percent after the election, although it too recovered and climbed 1.1 percent. The Nasdaq composite was up 1.2 percent.

Macroeconomic research firm Capital Research credits the U.S. stock market’s resilience to several factors, including its recent experience with the UK Brexit vote’s impact on the market, conciliatory speeches from both candidates that suggest President-elect Trump would moderate his more extreme positions, restraints stemming from his differences with fiscally conservative Republicans, and the already generally favorable economic backdrop.

Observers question how the markets and the economy will react in the months ahead. Tom Fahey, vice president and associate director of macro strategies at investment management firm Loomis, Sayles & Co., expects overall GDP growth to pick up due to tax cuts and infrastructure spending but highlights risks to the supply-side of the economy stemming from a potential trade war with higher tariffs and reduced labor supply from tougher immigration enforcement. The outlook is bullish for the U.S. dollar, owing to a loose fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. Read more of Looms, Sayles & Co.’s analysis here.

Jim Glassman, JPMorgan’s head economist, commercial banking, says the Trump administration vows to lower corporate taxes and reduce income taxes, and institute a tax “holiday” that would allow corporations to bring money held offshore into the U.S. at a discounted rate. For more on JPMorgan’s expectations, click here.

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