Global Ad Spending Forecast To Grow In 2019 And 2020
The advertising industry is expected to grow 3.4 percent globally in 2019, or 4.6 percent on an underlying basis, which excludes political advertising in the U.S. The forecast comes from media investment company GroupM in its Worldwide Media Forecast, which further predicts that in 2020 advertising should grow 4.7 percent on an underlying basis, and when U.S. political advertising is factored in, total global growth will be more like six percent.
“While the economic foundations supporting the advertising industry are somewhat fragile at this time, growth trends are holding up for now,” says Brian Wieser, global president of business intelligence at GroupM.
Globally, the U.S. is a key driver of the industry’s ongoing expansion, but so, too, are China, Brazil, India and the U.K. Collectively, these five countries account for more than half of growth in 2019 and 2020. China, which represents one-sixth of global advertising, expects 5.6 percent growth in 2020. Brazil also stands out for its reversal from a predicted decline of 0.9 percent in 2019 to a 6.1 percent gain in 2020, despite mixed conditions for its overall economy. India expects double-digit growth in 2019 (14 percent) and 2020 (13 percent), making it set to surpass Australia and Canada by next year as the world’s eighth-largest ad market. As for the U.K., growth of more than 6.1 percent this year, and 4.6 percent next, makes the world’s fourth-largest ad market one of the healthiest despite the uncertainties surrounding Brexit.
Digital advertising continues to be the largest growth medium across markets, and internet-related activity dominates the global advertising marketplace, capturing 50 percent of the world’s advertising spending in 2020, double its 25 percent share from 2014. However, as digital media continues to mature, GroupM predicts its share of spending will eventually plateau. As a result, growth will ultimately decelerate with each passing year to eventually converge with global averages.
Television, set to account for 30 percent of advertising in 2020, has lost share over time as growth has essentially flattened. Worldwide, GroupM expects the medium to fall three percent in 2019 before rising in 2020 by 1.5 percent. This volatility is primarily due to activity in the United States, which represents 36 percent of the world’s total TV advertising, also heavily impacted by political advertising. Newspapers are set to decline again in 2019 and 2020, down 9.3 percent and 5.8 percent respectively, amounting to only $38 billion in ad revenue. Newspapers represent six percent of the world’s total advertising, down from 34 percent 20 years ago.