The U.S. economy picked up in March, with the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the month up 0.4 percent to 111.9, but indicators suggest its pace will soften by the end of the year. The index ticked up 0.1 percent in February and posted a flat performance in January.

“The US LEI picked up in March with labor markets, consumers’ outlook and financial conditions making the largest contributions,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at The Conference Board. “Despite the relatively large gain in March, the trend in the US LEI continues to moderate, suggesting that growth in the U.S. economy is likely to decelerate toward its long-term potential of about two percent by year-end.”

The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current economic activity, increased in March, rising 0.1 percent to 105.8, following a 0.1 percent increase in February and no change in December. Its Lagging Economic Index, an indicator representing changes that come only after the economy has begun to follow a particular trend, also increased in March, ticking up 0.1 percent to 107. This follows no change in February and a 0.6 percent increase in January.