Tariff Escalation Could Cost Nearly One Million U.S. Jobs, Study Shows

The latest round of trade talks begin on Monday in Beijing, China, as negotiators on both sides seek a resolution to the dispute between the U.S. and China. Should talks fail to make headway before the March 1 deadline, tariffs of 10 percent on approximately $250 billion in Chinese imports will jump to 25 percent. Tariffs Hurt The Heartland—a nationwide campaign against tariffs supported by the coalitions Farmers For Free Trade and Americans For Free Trade, of which PPAI® is a member—has released data highlighting the impact of the increase on U.S. jobs, household incomes and the country’s gross domestic product.

“This report shows what the trade threats this administration has made would actually mean for American families and communities,” says Dr. Charles Boustany, spokesman for Tariffs Hurt the Heartland and a former congressman. “The trade war is already creating enormous economic loss and this report shows how much worse it could get. Given that the administration has continually followed through on escalating the trade war, the lost jobs, income and GDP in this report can’t be taken lightly. Our hope is that the administration understands they are playing with fire. It’s time for the administration to take tariff increases off the table for good, end the threat of new tariffs and finally bring an end to the crippling tariffs we are facing right now.”

The report, which also includes analyses for all 50 states, shows the near-term perils of increasing tariffs to 25 percent on March 1, as the administration has said will happen if no agreement is reached with China. The study finds that the increase to 25 percent, coupled with tariffs already in place and retaliation, could reduce employment by over 934,000 jobs, cost the average family of four $767 and reduce GDP by 0.37 percent.

The study also looks at the combined impact of all the tariffs the administration has threatened to impose. The tariff hike combined with auto tariffs, tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports and retaliation could reduce U.S. employment by more than 2.2 million jobs, the average family of four would lose their tax reform savings and pay $2,389 more for goods and services, and GDP would drop by over one percent.

filed under February 2019 | Tariffs
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