Forecasts Point To Slowing Economic Growth In 2019’s Second Half

The U.S. economy softened in June, with The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. slipping 0.3 percent to 111.5. This follows a flat performance in May and a 0.1 percent increase in April.

“The U.S. LEI fell in June, the first decline since last December, primarily driven by weaknesses in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits and unemployment insurance claims,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “For the first time since late 2007, the yield spread made a small negative contribution. As the U.S. economy enters its 11th year of expansion, the longest in U.S. history, the LEI suggests growth is likely to remain slow in the second half of the year.”

The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current economic activity, increased in June, rising 0.1 percent to 105.9, following a 0.2 percent increase in May and no change in April. Its Lagging Economic Index, an indicator representing changes that come only after the economy has begun to follow a particular trend, also increased in June, climbing 0.6 percent to 107.7. This follows a 0.2 percent decline in May and no change in April.

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