Forecast Suggests Slowing Economic Growth Going Into 2020

The U.S. economy’s growth slowed in September, following a similar decline in August and a more robust increase in July. The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. softened 0.1 percent in September to 111.9, following a 0.2 percent slip in August and a 0.4 percent increase in July.

“The US LEI declined in September because of weaknesses in the manufacturing sector and the interest rate spread, which were only partially offset by rising stock prices and a positive contribution from the Leading Credit Index,” says Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economic research at The Conference Board. “The LEI reflects uncertainty in the outlook and falling business expectations, brought on by the downturn in the industrial sector and trade disputes. Looking ahead, the LEI is consistent with an economy that is still growing, albeit more slowly, through the end of the year and into 2020.”

The Conference Board’s Coincident Economic Index, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in September, remaining at 106.4, following a 0.3-percent increase in August and a 0.7-percent increase change in July. Its Lagging Economic Index, an indicator representing changes that come only after the economy has begun to follow a particular trend, increased in September, climbing 0.1 percent to 108.3. This follows a 0.4-percent decline in August and a 0.7-percent increase in July.

The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. was unchanged in September, remaining at 106.4 (2016 = 100), following a 0.3-percent increase in August and no change in July.

filed under October 2019
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